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Jincheon vs Geoje Citizen Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 07:30

Jincheon

PPG 2.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Geoje Citizen

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-15.6%0-23.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.3%1-110.5%1-25.9%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.4%3-16.1%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.4%4+-22.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 55.6% 1.80 -3.7%

Draw 23.2% 27.8% 3.60 -9.9%

Away win 23.3% 28.6% 3.50 -11.1%

Over 2.5 60.7% 57.1% 1.75 +6.2%

Over 3.5 37.5% 39.1% 2.56 -4.0%

BTTS 56.4% 62.9% 1.59 -10.3%

Home O1.5 55.7% 59.2% 1.69 -5.9%

Away O1.5 36.4% 35.2% 2.84 +3.4%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob56.4%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jincheon1.9

Geoje Citizen1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

JINCHEON · PPG 2.38

GEOJE CITIZEN · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Jincheon (H) 53.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -3.7%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.9%

Geoje Citizen (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jincheon face Geoje Citizen in South-Korea - K4 League on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jincheon a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Geoje Citizen 23%, so Jincheon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Jincheon and 1.1 for Geoje Citizen (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jincheon are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.62 for Geoje Citizen. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.2%.

Jincheon vs Geoje Citizen Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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