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Siheung Citizen vs Daejeon Korail Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 08:00

Siheung Citizen

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Daejeon Korail

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.3%0-114.3%0-26.7%0-32.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.4%1-113.5%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.8%2-16.3%2-23.0%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.1%3-12.0%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.6% 45.5% 2.20 -26.1%

Draw 32.3% 32.3% 3.10 +0.1%

Away win 34.1% 34.5% 2.90 -1.1%

Over 2.5 37.5% 50.0% 2.00 -25.0%

Over 3.5 18.3% 27.9% 3.58 -20.7%

BTTS 47.6% 57.1% 1.75 -16.7%

Home O1.5 30.6% 43.5% 2.30 -29.6%

Away O1.5 25.7% 34.6% 2.89 -15.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 65.8%

Bet Hit 89%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.6%

D 32% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.3%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 14.3%

#4 1–0 14.4%

#5 0–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Siheung Citizen0.9

Daejeon Korail0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SIHEUNG CITIZEN · PPG 2.00

DAEJEON KORAIL · PPG 1.82

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.00, combined xG 1.88 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Siheung Citizen (H) 33.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -26.1%

Draw 32.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +0.1%

Daejeon Korail (A) 34.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Siheung Citizen face Daejeon Korail in South-Korea - K3 League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Siheung Citizen a 34% chance, the draw 32% and Daejeon Korail 34%, so Daejeon Korail are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Siheung Citizen and 0.9 for Daejeon Korail (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Siheung Citizen are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.82 for Daejeon Korail. This match finished 2-0.

Siheung Citizen vs Daejeon Korail Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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