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Pocheon vs Mokpo City Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 09:00

Pocheon

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Mokpo City

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 73.6% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-12.7%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.0%1-16.7%1-22.0%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.9%2-18.5%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.7%3-17.1%3-22.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-013.4%4+-18.2%4+-22.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.6% 75.2% 1.33 -2.1%

Draw 17.5% 25.0% 4.00 -18.0%

Away win 8.9% 12.8% 7.80 -18.4%

Over 2.5 62.9% 60.6% 1.65 +3.8%

Over 3.5 39.4% 37.2% 2.69 +6.0%

BTTS 49.9% 52.4% 1.91 -4.7%

Home O1.5 65.1% 67.1% 1.49 -3.0%

Away O1.5 16.6% 21.1% 4.75 -12.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 65.8%

Bet Hit 89%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.9%

H 74% / xG 2.5-0.6 / O2.5 63% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 13.9%

#2 3–0 11.7%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 1–1 6.7%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pocheon2.5

Mokpo City0.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.9% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

POCHEON · PPG 2.00

MOKPO CITY · PPG 0.78

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.91 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.78 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Pocheon (H) 73.6%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -2.1%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -18.0%

Mokpo City (A) 8.9%

ODDS 7.80 · IMPLIED 12.8% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pocheon face Mokpo City in South-Korea - K3 League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pocheon a 74% chance, the draw 18% and Mokpo City 9%, so Pocheon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Pocheon and 0.6 for Mokpo City (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pocheon are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.78 for Mokpo City. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Pocheon vs Mokpo City Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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