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Gangneung City vs Jeonbuk Motors II Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 10:00

Gangneung City

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Jeonbuk Motors II

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-16.7%0-22.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.1%1-111.3%1-24.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.1%2-19.6%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.3%3-15.4%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 60.6% 1.65 -12.2%

Draw 24.5% 30.3% 3.30 -11.5%

Away win 22.3% 21.7% 4.60 +1.6%

Over 2.5 50.5% 51.3% 1.95 -1.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 31.8% 3.14 -5.9%

BTTS 51.7% 54.6% 1.83 -5.4%

Home O1.5 48.9% 56.2% 1.78 -13.0%

Away O1.5 24.8% 26.7% 3.75 -4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 65.8%

Bet Hit 89%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.7%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 2–0 11.1%

#4 2–1✓ 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gangneung City1.7

Jeonbuk Motors II0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GANGNEUNG CITY · PPG 1.33

JEONBUK MOTORS II · PPG 0.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gangneung City (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -12.2%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.5%

Jeonbuk Motors II (A) 22.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +1.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gangneung City face Jeonbuk Motors II in South-Korea - K3 League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gangneung City a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Jeonbuk Motors II 22%, so Gangneung City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Gangneung City and 0.9 for Jeonbuk Motors II (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gangneung City are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.40 for Jeonbuk Motors II. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +12.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Gangneung City vs Jeonbuk Motors II Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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