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Gangneung City vs Chuncheon Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 10:00

Gangneung City

PPG 1.12 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Chuncheon

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-18.5%0-26.4%0-33.2%0-4+1.7%1 1-07.8%1-111.7%1-28.7%1-34.3%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.3%2-18.0%2-26.0%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.4%3-13.6%3-22.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.7% 42.0% 2.38 -17.4%

Draw 24.1% 31.3% 3.20 -13.7%

Away win 41.3% 38.2% 2.62 +8.2%

Over 2.5 59.7% 54.1% 1.85 +10.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 32.9% 3.04 +11.3%

BTTS 61.3% 58.8% 1.70 +4.2%

Home O1.5 37.8% 43.7% 2.29 -13.4%

Away O1.5 41.6% 42.6% 2.35 -2.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 65.8%

Bet Hit 89%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.3%

A 41% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 0–1 8.5%

#5 0–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gangneung City1.4

Chuncheon1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GANGNEUNG CITY · PPG 1.12

CHUNCHEON · PPG 0.57

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gangneung City (H) 34.7%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -17.4%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.7%

Chuncheon (A) 41.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gangneung City face Chuncheon in South-Korea - K3 League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gangneung City a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Chuncheon 41%, so Chuncheon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Gangneung City and 1.5 for Chuncheon (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gangneung City are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 0.57 for Chuncheon. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Gangneung City vs Chuncheon Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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