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Dangjin Citizen vs Yeoju Sejong Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 09:00

Dangjin Citizen

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Yeoju Sejong

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-15.2%0-22.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.9%1-110.2%1-25.2%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.3%3-16.5%3-23.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-15.0%4+-22.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 48.8% 2.05 +14.6%

Draw 22.2% 30.3% 3.30 -16.0%

Away win 21.9% 33.3% 3.00 -20.6%

Over 2.5 59.7% 57.1% 1.75 +4.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 33.7% 2.97 +8.7%

BTTS 54.7% 61.7% 1.62 -11.4%

Home O1.5 54.9% 49.5% 2.02 +10.9%

Away O1.5 32.3% 37.9% 2.64 -14.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 65.8%

Bet Hit 89%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 56% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 1–2✓ 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dangjin Citizen2.0

Yeoju Sejong1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DANGJIN CITIZEN · PPG 1.75

YEOJU SEJONG · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.93 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dangjin Citizen (H) 55.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +14.6%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.0%

Yeoju Sejong (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dangjin Citizen face Yeoju Sejong in South-Korea - K3 League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dangjin Citizen a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Yeoju Sejong 22%, so Dangjin Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Dangjin Citizen and 1.0 for Yeoju Sejong (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dangjin Citizen are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.12 for Yeoju Sejong. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Dangjin Citizen vs Yeoju Sejong Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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