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Jeonbuk Motors II vs Ulsan Citizen Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 08:00

Jeonbuk Motors II

PPG 0.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ulsan Citizen

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-19.2%0-26.9%0-33.5%0-4+1.8%1 1-07.9%1-111.9%1-28.9%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.1%2-17.7%2-25.8%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.2%3-13.3%3-22.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% 31.3% 3.20 +1.8%

Draw 24.5% 30.8% 3.25 -12.2%

Away win 43.7% 50.0% 2.00 -12.6%

Over 2.5 58.4% 52.6% 1.90 +11.0%

Over 3.5 35.8% 30.5% 3.28 +17.4%

BTTS 56.1% 57.1% 1.75 -1.8%

Home O1.5 37.8% 34.2% 2.92 +10.4%

Away O1.5 43.7% 47.4% 2.11 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 65.8%

Bet Hit 89%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob56.1%

A 44% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 0–1✓ 9.2%

#4 2–1 7.7%

#5 0–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jeonbuk Motors II1.3

Ulsan Citizen1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.4% · O3.5 PROB 35.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JEONBUK MOTORS II · PPG 0.67

ULSAN CITIZEN · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jeonbuk Motors II (H) 31.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +1.8%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.2%

Ulsan Citizen (A) 43.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jeonbuk Motors II face Ulsan Citizen in South-Korea - K3 League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jeonbuk Motors II a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Ulsan Citizen 44%, so Ulsan Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Jeonbuk Motors II and 1.5 for Ulsan Citizen (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jeonbuk Motors II are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Ulsan Citizen. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Jeonbuk Motors II vs Ulsan Citizen Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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