Today / Japan - J3 League / Gainare Tottori vs Fukushima United

Gainare Tottori vs Fukushima United Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 10:00

Gainare Tottori

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWW ·

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Fukushima United

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLD ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+12.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-15.4%0-23.8%0-31.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-06.9%1-19.9%1-27.1%1-33.4%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-19.2%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.0%3-15.7%3-24.1%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-14.0%4+-22.9%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 40.0% 2.50 +16.8%

Draw 23.7% 33.3% 3.00 -17.3%

Away win 29.7% 40.0% 2.50 -15.4%

Over 2.5 62.6% 55.6% 1.80 +12.7%

Over 3.5 39.4% 36.5% 2.74 +8.0%

BTTS 61.3% 63.7% 1.57 -3.8%

Home O1.5 54.9% 45.0% 2.22 +21.9%

Away O1.5 41.2% 45.5% 2.20 -9.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 55.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.3%

H 47% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1✓ 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–0 6.4%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gainare Tottori1.9

Fukushima United1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GAINARE TOTTORI · PPG 1.75

FUKUSHIMA UNITED · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gainare Tottori (H) 46.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +16.8%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.3%

Fukushima United (A) 29.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gainare Tottori face Fukushima United in Japan - J3 League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gainare Tottori a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Fukushima United 30%, so Gainare Tottori are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Gainare Tottori and 1.4 for Fukushima United (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gainare Tottori are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.27 for Fukushima United. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +25.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Gainare Tottori vs Fukushima United Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Japan - J3 League Predictions