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Kamatamare Sanuki vs Kagoshima United Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 09:00

Kamatamare Sanuki

PPG 1.34 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLL ·

3 – 4

FULL TIME

Kagoshima United

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDW ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-110.8%0-26.5%0-32.6%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.7%1-113.0%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.5%2-17.9%2-24.8%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.6%3-13.2%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 32.3% 3.10 +12.2%

Draw 27.6% 31.3% 3.20 -7.0%

Away win 36.2% 46.5% 2.15 -22.2%

Over 2.5 50.5% 51.3% 1.95 -1.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.4% 3.40 -1.5%

BTTS 52.7% 57.8% 1.73 -8.8%

Home O1.5 32.4% 36.4% 2.75 -10.9%

Away O1.5 36.6% 46.5% 2.15 -21.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 55.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.7%

H 36% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 8.9%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kamatamare Sanuki1.2

Kagoshima United1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KAMATAMARE SANUKI · PPG 1.34

KAGOSHIMA UNITED · PPG 1.64

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.01, combined xG 2.42 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kamatamare Sanuki (H) 36.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +12.2%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.0%

Kagoshima United (A) 36.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -22.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kamatamare Sanuki face Kagoshima United in Japan - J3 League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kamatamare Sanuki a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Kagoshima United 36%, so Kamatamare Sanuki are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Kamatamare Sanuki and 1.2 for Kagoshima United (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kamatamare Sanuki are averaging 1.34 points per game versus 1.64 for Kagoshima United. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +34.4%. This match finished 3-4.

Kamatamare Sanuki vs Kagoshima United Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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