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FC Ryukyu vs Sagamihara Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 09:00

FC Ryukyu

PPG 1.48 · HOME

LAST 5

LDW ··

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sagamihara

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-19.5%0-25.8%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.3%1-112.6%1-27.8%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.8%2-18.4%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.0%3-13.7%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 31.3% 3.20 +16.5%

Draw 27.4% 30.3% 3.30 -5.8%

Away win 36.2% 47.6% 2.10 -24.0%

Over 2.5 50.5% 54.1% 1.85 -6.6%

Over 3.5 29.2% 31.3% 3.20 -3.9%

BTTS 52.7% 59.9% 1.67 -12.0%

Home O1.5 37.5% 37.0% 2.70 +1.3%

Away O1.5 36.6% 50.0% 2.00 -26.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 55.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.7%

H 36% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–2 7.8%

#3 0–0 7.7%

#4 0–1 9.5%

#5 2–1✓ 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Ryukyu1.3

Sagamihara1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FC RYUKYU · PPG 1.48

SAGAMIHARA · PPG 1.48

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Ryukyu (H) 36.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +16.5%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.8%

Sagamihara (A) 36.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -24.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Ryukyu face Sagamihara in Japan - J3 League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Ryukyu a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Sagamihara 36%, so FC Ryukyu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for FC Ryukyu and 1.2 for Sagamihara (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Ryukyu are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 1.48 for Sagamihara. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +6.9%. This match finished 2-1.

FC Ryukyu vs Sagamihara Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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