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Osaka vs FC Ryukyu Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 09:00

Osaka

PPG 2.10 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDD ·

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

FC Ryukyu

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDW ··

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-14.9%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.5%1-19.8%1-23.8%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.7%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.2%3-16.4%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-15.0%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.6% 57.8% 1.73 -3.8%

Draw 22.7% 31.3% 3.20 -16.4%

Away win 21.7% 23.8% 4.20 -5.3%

Over 2.5 51.6% 51.3% 1.95 +0.6%

Over 3.5 30.9% 31.3% 3.20 -1.1%

BTTS 49.1% 57.1% 1.75 -14.1%

Home O1.5 54.9% 54.1% 1.85 +1.6%

Away O1.5 20.0% 27.3% 3.66 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 55.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.1%

H 56% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–0 12.4%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Osaka2.0

FC Ryukyu0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

OSAKA · PPG 2.10

FC RYUKYU · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.20 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Osaka (H) 55.6%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -3.8%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -16.4%

FC Ryukyu (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Osaka face FC Ryukyu in Japan - J3 League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Osaka a 56% chance, the draw 23% and FC Ryukyu 22%, so Osaka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Osaka and 0.8 for FC Ryukyu (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Osaka are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 0.78 for FC Ryukyu. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +1.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Osaka vs FC Ryukyu Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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