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Kagoshima United vs FC Gifu Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 10:00

Kagoshima United

PPG 2.08 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDW ·

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

FC Gifu

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+19.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-16.7%0-24.5%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.1%1-111.0%1-27.5%1-33.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.7%2-19.1%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.7%3-15.0%3-23.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.0%4+-22.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.9% 46.5% 2.15 -9.9%

Draw 23.8% 34.5% 2.90 -18.6%

Away win 34.2% 33.3% 3.00 +2.6%

Over 2.5 59.7% 50.0% 2.00 +19.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 31.3% 3.20 +17.1%

BTTS 59.8% 57.1% 1.75 +4.7%

Home O1.5 47.9% 46.1% 2.17 +3.9%

Away O1.5 41.2% 36.2% 2.76 +13.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 55.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.8%

H 42% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kagoshima United1.7

FC Gifu1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KAGOSHIMA UNITED · PPG 2.08

FC GIFU · PPG 1.57

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kagoshima United (H) 41.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -9.9%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -18.6%

FC Gifu (A) 34.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kagoshima United face FC Gifu in Japan - J3 League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kagoshima United a 42% chance, the draw 24% and FC Gifu 34%, so Kagoshima United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Kagoshima United and 1.4 for FC Gifu (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kagoshima United are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 1.57 for FC Gifu. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Kagoshima United vs FC Gifu Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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