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FC Gifu vs Tochigi SC Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 09:00

FC Gifu

PPG 1.65 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDW ·

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Tochigi SC

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDL ·

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.2% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+18.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-16.0%0-22.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.4%1-110.9%1-25.2%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.2%3-15.9%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.1%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.2% 46.5% 2.15 +18.7%

Draw 23.1% 31.3% 3.20 -15.7%

Away win 21.8% 32.3% 3.10 -19.4%

Over 2.5 53.5% 48.8% 2.05 +9.7%

Over 3.5 33.4% 27.0% 3.70 +23.6%

BTTS 54.3% 55.6% 1.80 -2.3%

Home O1.5 49.0% 44.4% 2.25 +10.3%

Away O1.5 25.7% 34.5% 2.90 -15.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 55.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.3%

H 55% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–0 10.3%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.4%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Gifu1.8

Tochigi SC1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FC GIFU · PPG 1.65

TOCHIGI SC · PPG 1.35

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Gifu (H) 55.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +18.7%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.7%

Tochigi SC (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Gifu face Tochigi SC in Japan - J3 League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Gifu a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Tochigi SC 22%, so FC Gifu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for FC Gifu and 1.0 for Tochigi SC (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Gifu are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.35 for Tochigi SC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +26.4%. This match finished 4-1.

FC Gifu vs Tochigi SC Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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