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Kochi United vs Kamatamare Sanuki Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 10:00

Kochi United

PPG 1.09 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWL ·

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Kamatamare Sanuki

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLL ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-114.0%0-28.7%0-33.6%0-4+1.4%1 1-010.7%1-113.2%1-28.2%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.0%2-16.2%2-23.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.6%3-11.9%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.7% 38.5% 2.60 -16.8%

Draw 27.3% 35.7% 2.80 -14.1%

Away win 45.1% 38.5% 2.60 +17.3%

Over 2.5 42.9% 43.5% 2.30 -1.3%

Over 3.5 22.2% 24.1% 4.15 -4.7%

BTTS 47.6% 54.1% 1.85 -11.9%

Home O1.5 30.6% 36.0% 2.78 -14.9%

Away O1.5 37.3% 35.7% 2.80 +4.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 55.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob47.6%

A 45% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.0%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–0 11.3%

#4 0–2 8.7%

#5 1–0 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kochi United0.9

Kamatamare Sanuki1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.9% · O3.5 PROB 22.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KOCHI UNITED · PPG 1.09

KAMATAMARE SANUKI · PPG 1.29

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.30, combined xG 2.18 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kochi United (H) 27.7%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -16.8%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -14.1%

Kamatamare Sanuki (A) 45.1%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +17.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kochi United face Kamatamare Sanuki in Japan - J3 League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kochi United a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Kamatamare Sanuki 45%, so Kamatamare Sanuki are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Kochi United and 1.2 for Kamatamare Sanuki (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kochi United are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.29 for Kamatamare Sanuki. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +5.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Kochi United vs Kamatamare Sanuki Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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