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Sagamihara vs Kanazawa Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 09:00

Sagamihara

PPG 1.49 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWL ·

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kanazawa

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+25.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.9%0-23.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.9%1-110.7%1-26.4%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.7%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.9%3-15.9%3-23.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-14.1%4+-22.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.5% 44.4% 2.25 +13.6%

Draw 23.6% 34.5% 2.90 -18.9%

Away win 25.9% 34.7% 2.88 -15.2%

Over 2.5 59.7% 47.6% 2.10 +25.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 28.6% 3.50 +28.1%

BTTS 60.3% 57.1% 1.75 +5.5%

Home O1.5 50.9% 43.5% 2.30 +17.1%

Away O1.5 36.4% 35.7% 2.80 +1.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 55.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.3%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1✓ 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 1–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sagamihara1.8

Kanazawa1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SAGAMIHARA · PPG 1.49

KANAZAWA · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.63 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sagamihara (H) 50.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +13.6%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -18.9%

Kanazawa (A) 25.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sagamihara face Kanazawa in Japan - J3 League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sagamihara a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Kanazawa 26%, so Sagamihara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Sagamihara and 1.2 for Kanazawa (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sagamihara are averaging 1.49 points per game versus 1.11 for Kanazawa. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +34.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Sagamihara vs Kanazawa Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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