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Fukushima United vs Nara Club Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 09:00

Fukushima United

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLD ·

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Nara Club

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWD ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.9%0-23.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.8%1-19.6%1-26.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.3%3-16.1%3-24.2%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.6%4+-23.2%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 45.5% 2.20 +5.6%

Draw 22.6% 28.6% 3.50 -12.5%

Away win 29.5% 35.7% 2.80 -10.4%

Over 2.5 64.5% 58.8% 1.70 +9.7%

Over 3.5 43.2% 36.4% 2.75 +18.8%

BTTS 63.1% 64.5% 1.55 -2.2%

Home O1.5 56.3% 51.3% 1.95 +9.8%

Away O1.5 40.9% 43.5% 2.30 -5.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 55.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.1%

H 48% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 6.7%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fukushima United2.0

Nara Club1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.5% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FUKUSHIMA UNITED · PPG 1.21

NARA CLUB · PPG 0.87

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fukushima United (H) 48.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +5.6%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -12.5%

Nara Club (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fukushima United face Nara Club in Japan - J3 League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fukushima United a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Nara Club 30%, so Fukushima United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Fukushima United and 1.4 for Nara Club (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fukushima United are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 0.87 for Nara Club. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Fukushima United vs Nara Club Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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