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Al Nasr vs Al Jazira Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Regular Season - 23 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 16:45

Al Nasr

PPG 1.09 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

Al Jazira

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-112.3%0-28.6%0-34.0%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.1%1-112.7%1-28.9%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-04.7%2-16.6%2-24.6%2-32.1%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.6%3-12.3%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.9% 29.9% 3.35 -6.5%

Draw 26.9% 28.6% 3.50 -5.9%

Away win 45.2% 50.8% 1.97 -11.0%

Over 2.5 43.9% 55.6% 1.80 -21.0%

Over 3.5 22.8% 33.3% 3.00 -31.6%

BTTS 48.6% 60.6% 1.65 -19.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -7.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob48.6%

A 45% / xG 1.0-1.4 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–1 12.3%

#3 1–0 9.1%

#4 1–2 8.9%

#5 0–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Nasr1.0

Al Jazira1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.9% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AL NASR · PPG 1.09

AL JAZIRA · PPG 1.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.64) vs Home AVERAGE (1.09)

Win probability 1X2

Al Nasr (H) 27.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -6.5%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.9%

Al Jazira (A) 45.2%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Nasr face Al Jazira in United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Nasr a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Al Jazira 45%, so Al Jazira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Al Nasr and 1.4 for Al Jazira (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Nasr are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.64 for Al Jazira. This match finished 3-2.

Al Nasr vs Al Jazira Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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