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Municipal Grecia vs AD Sarchí Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 00:00

Municipal Grecia

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLW ·

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

AD Sarchí

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.2%0-23.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.1%1-111.1%1-26.0%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-09.0%2-19.8%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.3%3-15.8%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.8%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% 44.4% 2.25 +14.3%

Draw 24.1% 30.3% 3.30 -12.3%

Away win 25.1% 37.0% 2.70 -19.3%

Over 2.5 56.0% 55.6% 1.80 +0.8%

Over 3.5 35.4% 34.2% 2.92 +3.4%

BTTS 55.0% 59.9% 1.67 -8.2%

Home O1.5 48.9% 45.0% 2.22 +8.6%

Away O1.5 32.9% 42.0% 2.38 -21.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.0%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0✓ 10.1%

#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Municipal Grecia1.8

AD Sarchí1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.0% · O3.5 PROB 35.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MUNICIPAL GRECIA · PPG 1.59

AD SARCHÍ · PPG 1.18

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Municipal Grecia (H) 50.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +14.3%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.3%

AD Sarchí (A) 25.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -19.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Municipal Grecia face AD Sarchí in Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Municipal Grecia a 51% chance, the draw 24% and AD Sarchí 25%, so Municipal Grecia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Municipal Grecia and 1.1 for AD Sarchí (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Municipal Grecia are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.18 for AD Sarchí. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +29.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Municipal Grecia vs AD Sarchí Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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