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AD Sarchí vs Quepos Cambute Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 17:00

AD Sarchí

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDL ·

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Quepos Cambute

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.4%0-23.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.9%1-111.2%1-26.3%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.6%2-19.7%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.0%3-15.6%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.6%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 40.8% 2.45 +14.9%

Draw 24.3% 29.4% 3.40 -10.4%

Away win 28.8% 41.7% 2.40 -18.5%

Over 2.5 53.9% 57.1% 1.75 -5.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 43.5% 2.30 -27.3%

BTTS 54.7% 69.4% 1.44 -21.2%

Home O1.5 48.8% 51.8% 1.93 -5.8%

Away O1.5 35.6% 52.4% 1.91 -32.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 1–2 6.3%

#5 1–0 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AD Sarchí1.7

Quepos Cambute1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AD SARCHÍ · PPG 1.71

QUEPOS CAMBUTE · PPG 1.04

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

AD Sarchí (H) 46.9%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +14.9%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.4%

Quepos Cambute (A) 28.8%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -18.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

AD Sarchí face Quepos Cambute in Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AD Sarchí a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Quepos Cambute 29%, so AD Sarchí are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for AD Sarchí and 1.1 for Quepos Cambute (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AD Sarchí are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.04 for Quepos Cambute. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +21.5%. This match finished 1-1.

AD Sarchí vs Quepos Cambute Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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