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Aserri FC vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 19:00

Aserri FC

PPG 1.09 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-110.9%0-25.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.2%1-113.3%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.0%2-18.1%2-24.0%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.3%3-13.3%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.6% 39.2% 2.55 +6.1%

Draw 28.5% 30.8% 3.25 -4.4%

Away win 29.9% 41.7% 2.40 -16.9%

Over 2.5 44.8% 52.6% 1.90 -14.9%

Over 3.5 26.1% 33.7% 2.97 -13.5%

BTTS 50.0% 60.6% 1.65 -17.5%

Home O1.5 32.8% 42.6% 2.35 -22.9%

Away O1.5 31.0% 44.1% 2.27 -29.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.0%

H 42% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 45% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.3%

#2 1–0 13.2%

#3 0–0 10.9%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aserri FC1.2

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ASERRI FC · PPG 1.09

PITBULLS SANTA BARBARA FC · PPG 0.94

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.21, combined xG 2.22 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aserri FC (H) 41.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +6.1%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -4.4%

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC (A) 29.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aserri FC face Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC in Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aserri FC a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 30%, so Aserri FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Aserri FC and 1.0 for Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aserri FC are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 0.94 for Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Aserri FC vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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