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ADR Jicaral vs Santa Cruz FC Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 17:00

ADR Jicaral

PPG 1.84 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWW ·

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Santa Cruz FC

PPG 0.76 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.7% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-13.9%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.9%1-18.3%1-22.5%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.8%2-18.9%2-22.7%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.5%3-16.3%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.2%4+-15.5%4+-21.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.7% 72.5% 1.38 -10.7%

Draw 21.1% 23.8% 4.20 -6.8%

Away win 14.2% 15.4% 6.50 -4.6%

Over 2.5 53.9% 57.1% 1.75 -5.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 43.5% 2.30 -27.3%

BTTS 47.6% 56.2% 1.78 -15.3%

Home O1.5 59.6% 73.5% 1.36 -18.9%

Away O1.5 16.5% 28.6% 3.50 -25.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.6%

H 65% / xG 2.1-0.6 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.8%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 1–1 8.3%

#4 3–0 10.5%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ADR Jicaral2.1

Santa Cruz FC0.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ADR JICARAL · PPG 1.84

SANTA CRUZ FC · PPG 0.76

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.53 for Home, form 1.84 vs 0.76 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

ADR Jicaral (H) 64.7%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV -10.7%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -6.8%

Santa Cruz FC (A) 14.2%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

ADR Jicaral face Santa Cruz FC in Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ADR Jicaral a 65% chance, the draw 21% and Santa Cruz FC 14%, so ADR Jicaral are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for ADR Jicaral and 0.6 for Santa Cruz FC (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ADR Jicaral are averaging 1.84 points per game versus 0.76 for Santa Cruz FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 4-1.

ADR Jicaral vs Santa Cruz FC Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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