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Santa Ana vs CS Uruguay Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 17:00

Santa Ana

PPG 1.52 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWL ·

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

CS Uruguay

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.5%0-22.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.4%1-19.5%1-24.8%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.9%3-17.0%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-15.9%4+-23.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 52.6% 1.90 +6.2%

Draw 22.2% 28.6% 3.50 -13.4%

Away win 21.9% 30.3% 3.30 -16.6%

Over 2.5 59.7% 57.1% 1.75 +4.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 27.4% 3.65 +33.6%

BTTS 54.7% 53.8% 1.86 +1.7%

Home O1.5 59.6% 46.7% 2.14 +27.5%

Away O1.5 31.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 56% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 1–2 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santa Ana2.1

CS Uruguay1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTA ANA · PPG 1.52

CS URUGUAY · PPG 0.83

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.09 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Santa Ana (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +6.2%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.4%

CS Uruguay (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santa Ana face CS Uruguay in Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santa Ana a 56% chance, the draw 22% and CS Uruguay 22%, so Santa Ana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Santa Ana and 1.0 for CS Uruguay (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santa Ana are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 0.83 for CS Uruguay. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Santa Ana vs CS Uruguay Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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