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AD Carmelita vs Aserri FC Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 21:00

AD Carmelita

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Aserri FC

PPG 0.96 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-16.8%0-23.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.2%1-111.5%1-25.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.7%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.8%3-15.4%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 52.4% 1.91 -0.7%

Draw 24.2% 29.4% 3.40 -10.6%

Away win 23.8% 29.4% 3.40 -11.5%

Over 2.5 53.5% 54.1% 1.85 -1.0%

Over 3.5 31.5% 33.7% 2.97 -6.4%

BTTS 54.3% 59.9% 1.67 -9.3%

Home O1.5 48.9% 51.8% 1.93 -5.6%

Away O1.5 25.7% 35.2% 2.84 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.3%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 2–0 10.3%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AD Carmelita1.7

Aserri FC0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AD CARMELITA · PPG 1.17

ASERRI FC · PPG 0.96

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

AD Carmelita (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -0.7%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.6%

Aserri FC (A) 23.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

AD Carmelita face Aserri FC in Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AD Carmelita a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Aserri FC 24%, so AD Carmelita are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for AD Carmelita and 0.9 for Aserri FC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AD Carmelita are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.96 for Aserri FC. This match finished 1-2.

AD Carmelita vs Aserri FC Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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