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Quepos Cambute vs AD Cofutpa Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:00

Quepos Cambute

PPG 2.24 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

AD Cofutpa

PPG 0.68 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLL ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-13.8%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.1%1-18.6%1-23.7%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.7%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.6%3-17.3%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.2%4+-17.0%4+-23.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 66.7% 1.50 -13.6%

Draw 21.5% 25.0% 4.00 -8.4%

Away win 21.0% 20.0% 5.00 +3.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 59.9% 1.67 -0.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 39.1% 2.56 -6.0%

BTTS 53.2% 56.8% 1.76 -6.4%

Home O1.5 65.8% 65.8% 1.52 +0.0%

Away O1.5 23.7% 26.7% 3.75 -6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.2%

H 58% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–0 11.4%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 3–0✓ 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Quepos Cambute2.3

AD Cofutpa0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

QUEPOS CAMBUTE · PPG 2.24

AD COFUTPA · PPG 0.68

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.40 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Quepos Cambute (H) 57.6%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -13.6%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -8.4%

AD Cofutpa (A) 21.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Quepos Cambute face AD Cofutpa in Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Quepos Cambute a 58% chance, the draw 22% and AD Cofutpa 21%, so Quepos Cambute are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Quepos Cambute and 0.8 for AD Cofutpa (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Quepos Cambute are averaging 2.24 points per game versus 0.68 for AD Cofutpa. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Quepos Cambute vs AD Cofutpa Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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