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Santa Cruz FC vs Aserri FC Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:00

Santa Cruz FC

PPG 1.49 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Aserri FC

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-17.1%0-24.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.0%1-111.6%1-26.7%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.5%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.5%3-15.2%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.1%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 44.4% 2.25 +3.5%

Draw 24.5% 27.8% 3.60 -7.1%

Away win 29.6% 39.2% 2.55 -14.7%

Over 2.5 59.7% 60.6% 1.65 -1.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 40.7% 2.46 -9.7%

BTTS 59.9% 66.7% 1.50 -10.2%

Home O1.5 48.9% 51.5% 1.94 -5.1%

Away O1.5 33.0% 46.9% 2.13 -29.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.9%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.0%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 1–2✓ 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santa Cruz FC1.6

Aserri FC1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTA CRUZ FC · PPG 1.49

ASERRI FC · PPG 1.19

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Santa Cruz FC (H) 46.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +3.5%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.1%

Aserri FC (A) 29.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santa Cruz FC face Aserri FC in Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santa Cruz FC a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Aserri FC 30%, so Santa Cruz FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Santa Cruz FC and 1.2 for Aserri FC (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santa Cruz FC are averaging 1.49 points per game versus 1.19 for Aserri FC. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +5.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Santa Cruz FC vs Aserri FC Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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