Today / Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso / Aserri FC vs Municipal Grecia

Aserri FC vs Municipal Grecia Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 23:00

Aserri FC

PPG 1.08 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Municipal Grecia

PPG 1.37 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 60.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-111.1%0-26.1%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.0%1-113.2%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.1%2-17.9%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.8%3-13.2%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 39.2% 2.55 -6.4%

Draw 27.9% 28.6% 3.50 -1.4%

Away win 35.4% 43.5% 2.30 -18.6%

Over 2.5 46.0% 52.6% 1.90 -12.6%

Over 3.5 27.5% 32.5% 3.08 -9.2%

BTTS 52.2% 60.2% 1.66 -13.4%

Home O1.5 32.4% 41.7% 2.40 -22.2%

Away O1.5 35.6% 44.1% 2.27 -19.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.2%

H 37% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.0%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 1–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aserri FC1.2

Municipal Grecia1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.0% · O3.5 PROB 27.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ASERRI FC · PPG 1.08

MUNICIPAL GRECIA · PPG 1.37

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.09, combined xG 2.30 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aserri FC (H) 36.7%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -6.4%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -1.4%

Municipal Grecia (A) 35.4%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aserri FC face Municipal Grecia in Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aserri FC a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Municipal Grecia 35%, so Aserri FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Aserri FC and 1.1 for Municipal Grecia (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aserri FC are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.37 for Municipal Grecia. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +3.4%. This match finished 3-2.

Aserri FC vs Municipal Grecia Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

More Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso Predictions