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Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC vs Santa Ana Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 5 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 01:00

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

PPG 1.72 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Santa Ana

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-16.6%0-23.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.0%1-111.3%1-26.4%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.7%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.9%3-15.5%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.5%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 46.5% 2.15 -0.0%

Draw 24.2% 28.6% 3.50 -9.2%

Away win 29.3% 37.0% 2.70 -12.5%

Over 2.5 59.6% 64.5% 1.55 -7.6%

Over 3.5 36.2% 42.7% 2.34 -15.3%

BTTS 56.4% 69.4% 1.44 -18.8%

Home O1.5 49.9% 54.6% 1.83 -8.7%

Away O1.5 33.2% 45.7% 2.19 -27.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob56.4%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0✓ 8.5%

#4 1–2 6.4%

#5 1–0 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC1.7

Santa Ana1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PITBULLS SANTA BARBARA FC · PPG 1.72

SANTA ANA · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -0.0%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.2%

Santa Ana (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC face Santa Ana in Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Santa Ana 29%, so Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC and 1.1 for Santa Ana (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 1.56 for Santa Ana. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC vs Santa Ana Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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