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Merani Martvili vs Gareji Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 12:30

Merani Martvili

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Gareji

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.7%0-114.1%0-25.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.8%1-113.3%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.5%2-16.3%2-22.7%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.4%3-12.0%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% — — —

Draw 33.1% — — —

Away win 30.1% — — —

Over 2.5 37.7% — — —

Over 3.5 18.0% — — —

BTTS 47.2% — — —

Home O1.5 30.9% — — —

Away O1.5 23.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 30.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.7%

#2 1–0 15.8%

#3 1–1 13.3%

#4 0–1 14.1%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Merani Martvili0.9

Gareji0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.7% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MERANI MARTVILI · PPG 1.73

GAREJI · PPG 1.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.10, combined xG 1.79 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Merani Martvili (H) 36.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gareji (A) 30.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Merani Martvili face Gareji in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Merani Martvili a 37% chance, the draw 33% and Gareji 30%, so Merani Martvili are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Merani Martvili and 0.8 for Gareji (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Merani Martvili are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.70 for Gareji. This match finished 1-2.

Merani Martvili vs Gareji Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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