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Querétaro W vs Monterrey W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 23:00

Querétaro W

PPG 0.85 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Monterrey W

PPG 2.01 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-16.9%0-27.5%0-35.5%0-4+4.9%1 1-04.1%1-18.8%1-29.6%1-36.9%1-4+6.3%2 2-02.6%2-15.6%2-26.1%2-34.4%2-4+4.0%3 3-01.1%3-12.4%3-22.6%3-31.9%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.9% 11.8% 8.50 +56.8%

Draw 21.1% 15.4% 6.50 +22.3%

Away win 55.9% 83.3% 1.20 -32.9%

Over 2.5 65.0% 75.2% 1.33 -13.6%

Over 3.5 43.2% 54.6% 1.83 -20.9%

BTTS 61.9% 45.5% 2.20 +36.2%

Home O1.5 37.2% 17.7% 5.65 +110.2%

Away O1.5 59.3% 87.7% 1.14 -32.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 16%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob61.9%

A 56% / xG 1.3-2.2 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.8%

#3 0–2 7.5%

#4 1–3 6.9%

#5 2–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Querétaro W1.3

Monterrey W2.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

QUERÉTARO W · PPG 0.85

MONTERREY W · PPG 2.01

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.90 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Querétaro W (H) 22.9%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +56.8%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +22.3%

Monterrey W (A) 55.9%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -32.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Querétaro W face Monterrey W in Mexico - Liga MX Femenil on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Querétaro W a 23% chance, the draw 21% and Monterrey W 56%, so Monterrey W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Querétaro W and 2.2 for Monterrey W (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Querétaro W are averaging 0.85 points per game versus 2.01 for Monterrey W. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +256.7%. This match finished 0-4.

Querétaro W vs Monterrey W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Match Preview & Prediction

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