Today / Mexico - Liga MX Femenil / Juárez W vs Santos Laguna W

Juárez W vs Santos Laguna W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 01:06

Juárez W

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Santos Laguna W

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-16.9%0-22.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.4%1-111.4%1-24.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.4%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.5%3-15.2%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 69.4% 1.44 -23.5%

Draw 24.6% 26.7% 3.75 -4.7%

Away win 22.3% 16.7% 6.00 +20.3%

Over 2.5 50.2% 57.8% 1.73 -13.2%

Over 3.5 28.4% 36.4% 2.75 -13.1%

BTTS 50.6% 54.1% 1.85 -6.4%

Home O1.5 47.6% 63.7% 1.57 -25.3%

Away O1.5 21.6% 23.1% 4.33 -3.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 16%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.6%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.4%

#2 1–1 11.4%

#3 2–0 11.9%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juárez W1.7

Santos Laguna W0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

JUÁREZ W · PPG 1.88

SANTOS LAGUNA W · PPG 1.13

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.86 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Juárez W (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -23.5%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.7%

Santos Laguna W (A) 22.3%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juárez W face Santos Laguna W in Mexico - Liga MX Femenil on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juárez W a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Santos Laguna W 22%, so Juárez W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Juárez W and 0.8 for Santos Laguna W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juárez W are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.13 for Santos Laguna W. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.2%. This match finished 3-2.

Juárez W vs Santos Laguna W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Match Preview & Prediction

More Mexico - Liga MX Femenil Predictions