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Necaxa W vs América W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 00:06

Necaxa W

PPG 0.72 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

0 – 7

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

América W

PPG 2.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -2.96 for Away, form 0.72 vs 2.04

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-14.0%0-27.5%0-39.4%0-4+23.4%1 1-00.8%1-13.2%1-25.9%1-37.4%1-4+18.5%2 2-00.3%2-11.3%2-22.3%2-32.9%2-4+7.3%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.6%3-30.8%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 11.3% 2.6% 39.00 +204.4%

Draw 15.8% 7.4% 13.50 +68.0%

Away win 72.9% 97.1% 1.03 -24.9%

Over 2.5 74.2% 91.7% 1.09 -19.1%

Over 3.5 56.2% 83.3% 1.20 -32.6%

BTTS 52.7% 50.0% 2.00 +5.4%

Home O1.5 30.9% 14.3% 7.00 +116.3%

Away O1.5 88.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 16%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-7

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)3.7 BTTS prob52.7%

A 73% / xG 0.8-3.7 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 9.4%

#2 0–4 8.8%

#3 1–1 3.2%

#4 0–2 7.5%

#5 1–3 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Necaxa W0.8

América W3.7

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.2% · O3.5 PROB 56.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NECAXA W · PPG 0.72

AMÉRICA W · PPG 2.04

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -2.96 for Away, form 0.72 vs 2.04

Win probability 1X2

Necaxa W (H) 11.3%

ODDS 39.00 · IMPLIED 2.6% EV +204.4%

Draw 15.8%

ODDS 13.50 · IMPLIED 7.4% EV +68.0%

América W (A) 72.9%

ODDS 1.03 · IMPLIED 97.1% EV -24.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Necaxa W face América W in Mexico - Liga MX Femenil on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Necaxa W a 11% chance, the draw 16% and América W 73%, so América W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Necaxa W and 3.7 for América W (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Necaxa W are averaging 0.72 points per game versus 2.04 for América W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +279.4%. This match finished 0-7.

Necaxa W vs América W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Match Preview & Prediction

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