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Atlas W vs Tijuana W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 01:00

Atlas W

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Tijuana W

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+22.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-14.3%0-24.1%0-32.6%0-4+2.0%1 1-04.2%1-18.1%1-27.7%1-34.9%1-4+3.7%2 2-04.0%2-17.6%2-27.3%2-34.7%2-4+3.5%3 3-02.5%3-14.8%3-24.6%3-32.9%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-13.4%4+-23.3%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.5% 31.7% 3.15 +18.1%

Draw 21.4% 28.6% 3.50 -15.1%

Away win 41.1% 46.3% 2.16 -11.2%

Over 2.5 68.2% 55.6% 1.80 +22.8%

Over 3.5 45.0% 33.3% 3.00 +35.0%

BTTS 63.1% 61.7% 1.62 +2.2%

Home O1.5 56.3% 38.5% 2.60 +46.4%

Away O1.5 56.9% 50.0% 2.00 +13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 16%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.1%

A 41% / xG 1.9-1.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 1–2 7.7%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 1–3 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlas W1.9

Tijuana W1.9

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLAS W · PPG 1.18

TIJUANA W · PPG 1.08

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.03 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atlas W (H) 37.5%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +18.1%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -15.1%

Tijuana W (A) 41.1%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlas W face Tijuana W in Mexico - Liga MX Femenil on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlas W a 38% chance, the draw 21% and Tijuana W 41%, so Tijuana W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Atlas W and 1.9 for Tijuana W (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlas W are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.08 for Tijuana W. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +46.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Atlas W vs Tijuana W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Match Preview & Prediction

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