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Cruz Azul W vs Tigres UANL W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 00:00

Cruz Azul W

PPG 2.04 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Tigres UANL W

PPG 2.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-15.1%0-26.4%0-35.4%0-4+6.2%1 1-02.8%1-17.0%1-28.8%1-37.4%1-4+8.6%2 2-01.9%2-14.9%2-26.1%2-35.2%2-4+5.9%3 3-00.9%3-12.2%3-22.8%3-32.4%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.1%4+-21.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.8% 22.7% 4.40 +0.2%

Draw 17.9% 25.0% 4.00 -17.0%

Away win 59.3% 65.4% 1.53 -9.3%

Over 2.5 67.3% 71.4% 1.40 -5.8%

Over 3.5 47.6% 51.0% 1.96 -6.7%

BTTS 63.2% 69.4% 1.44 -9.0%

Home O1.5 38.6% 38.9% 2.57 -0.8%

Away O1.5 65.4% 72.5% 1.38 -9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 16%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob63.2%

A 59% / xG 1.4-2.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.8%

#2 1–3 7.4%

#3 1–1 7.0%

#4 0–2 6.4%

#5 2–1 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cruz Azul W1.4

Tigres UANL W2.5

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CRUZ AZUL W · PPG 2.04

TIGRES UANL W · PPG 2.12

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.14 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Cruz Azul W (H) 22.8%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +0.2%

Draw 17.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -17.0%

Tigres UANL W (A) 59.3%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cruz Azul W face Tigres UANL W in Mexico - Liga MX Femenil on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cruz Azul W a 23% chance, the draw 18% and Tigres UANL W 59%, so Tigres UANL W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cruz Azul W and 2.5 for Tigres UANL W (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cruz Azul W are averaging 2.04 points per game versus 2.12 for Tigres UANL W. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +20.6%. This match finished 0-3.

Cruz Azul W vs Tigres UANL W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Match Preview & Prediction

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