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Figueirense vs Maranhão Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 20:00

Figueirense

PPG 1.12 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Maranhão

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.8%0-113.8%0-25.6%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.2%1-113.3%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.8%2-16.4%2-22.6%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.5%3-12.1%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 57.1% 1.75 -35.9%

Draw 33.0% 33.3% 3.00 -1.0%

Away win 30.4% 22.7% 4.40 +33.8%

Over 2.5 37.8% 46.5% 2.15 -18.7%

Over 3.5 20.7% 25.0% 4.00 -10.3%

BTTS 47.2% 51.3% 1.95 -8.0%

Home O1.5 30.9% 52.4% 1.91 -41.0%

Away O1.5 23.5% 23.1% 4.33 +1.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.2%

D 33% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.8%

#2 1–0 16.2%

#3 1–1 13.3%

#4 0–1 13.8%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Figueirense1.0

Maranhão0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FIGUEIRENSE · PPG 1.12

MARANHÃO · PPG 1.11

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.15, combined xG 1.78 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Figueirense (H) 36.6%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -35.9%

Draw 33.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -1.0%

Maranhão (A) 30.4%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +33.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Figueirense face Maranhão in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Figueirense a 37% chance, the draw 33% and Maranhão 30%, so Figueirense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Figueirense and 0.8 for Maranhão (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Figueirense are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.11 for Maranhão. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +21.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Figueirense vs Maranhão Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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