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Anápolis vs Santa Cruz Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 20:00

Anápolis

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Santa Cruz

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.8%0-114.7%0-26.8%0-32.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.4%1-113.4%1-26.3%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.6%2-16.2%2-22.9%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.0%3-11.9%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.6% 41.7% 2.40 -17.0%

Draw 31.2% 35.7% 2.80 -12.6%

Away win 34.2% 35.7% 2.80 -4.2%

Over 2.5 37.8% 43.5% 2.30 -13.1%

Over 3.5 18.1% 23.1% 4.33 -13.0%

BTTS 47.2% 52.4% 1.91 -9.8%

Home O1.5 30.9% 38.2% 2.62 -19.0%

Away O1.5 25.7% 33.3% 3.00 -13.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

D 31% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.8%

#2 1–0 14.4%

#3 0–1 14.7%

#4 1–1✓ 13.4%

#5 2–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Anápolis0.9

Santa Cruz0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ANÁPOLIS · PPG 1.38

SANTA CRUZ · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.02, combined xG 1.85 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Anápolis (H) 34.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -17.0%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -12.6%

Santa Cruz (A) 34.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Anápolis face Santa Cruz in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Anápolis a 35% chance, the draw 31% and Santa Cruz 34%, so Anápolis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Anápolis and 0.9 for Santa Cruz (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Anápolis are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.67 for Santa Cruz. This match finished 1-1.

Anápolis vs Santa Cruz Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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