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Midland vs Nueva Chicago Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 19:30

Midland

PPG 2.08 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Nueva Chicago

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.2%0-16.8%0-21.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-021.9%1-19.7%1-22.2%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.7%2-17.0%2-21.6%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-07.6%3-13.4%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-11.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.4% 57.1% 1.75 +0.4%

Draw 26.6% 33.3% 3.00 -12.1%

Away win 16.0% 20.0% 5.00 -12.0%

Over 2.5 37.8% 34.7% 2.88 +8.9%

Over 3.5 18.4% 16.7% 6.00 +6.2%

BTTS 42.6% 41.7% 2.40 +2.2%

Home O1.5 40.1% 44.4% 2.25 -9.8%

Away O1.5 12.8% 14.3% 7.00 -6.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 51%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob42.6%

H 57% / xG 1.4-0.4 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.9%

#2 0–0 15.2%

#3 2–0✓ 15.7%

#4 1–1 9.7%

#5 0–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Midland1.4

Nueva Chicago0.4

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MIDLAND · PPG 2.08

NUEVA CHICAGO · PPG 0.83

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.99 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Midland (H) 57.4%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +0.4%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.1%

Nueva Chicago (A) 16.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Midland face Nueva Chicago in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Midland a 57% chance, the draw 27% and Nueva Chicago 16%, so Midland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Midland and 0.4 for Nueva Chicago (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Midland are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 0.83 for Nueva Chicago. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Midland vs Nueva Chicago Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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