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Real Cundinamarca vs Patriotas Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 19:00

Real Cundinamarca

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDLW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Patriotas

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.27, combined xG 2.33 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-110.0%0-25.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.6%1-113.0%1-26.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.2%2-18.5%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.5%3-13.7%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.0% — — —

Draw 27.3% — — —

Away win 29.6% — — —

Over 2.5 50.5% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 52.7% — — —

Home O1.5 37.2% — — —

Away O1.5 32.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 0–0 9.7%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Cundinamarca1.3

Patriotas1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL CUNDINAMARCA · PPG 1.33

PATRIOTAS · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.27, combined xG 2.33 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Real Cundinamarca (H) 43.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Patriotas (A) 29.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Cundinamarca face Patriotas in Colombia - Primera B on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Cundinamarca a 43% chance, the draw 27% and Patriotas 30%, so Real Cundinamarca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Real Cundinamarca and 1.0 for Patriotas (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Cundinamarca are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.44 for Patriotas. This match finished 4-1.

Real Cundinamarca vs Patriotas Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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