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Ciudad de Bolívar vs Defensores De Belgrano Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 19:00

Ciudad de Bolívar

PPG 1.15 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Defensores De Belgrano

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.4%0-110.9%0-22.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.5%1-111.5%1-23.1%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.4%2-16.1%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-04.0%3-12.1%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 36.4% 2.75 +25.4%

Draw 31.6% 38.2% 2.62 -17.2%

Away win 22.8% 34.5% 2.90 -20.3%

Over 2.5 34.2% 29.4% 3.40 +16.3%

Over 3.5 17.5% 14.3% 7.00 +13.5%

BTTS 42.6% 42.0% 2.38 +1.4%

Home O1.5 30.9% 26.7% 3.75 +15.9%

Away O1.5 15.1% 26.7% 3.75 -26.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob42.6%

H 46% / xG 1.1-0.5 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 21.5%

#2 0–0 20.4%

#3 0–1 10.9%

#4 1–1 11.5%

#5 2–0 11.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ciudad de Bolívar1.1

Defensores De Belgrano0.5

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CIUDAD DE BOLÍVAR · PPG 1.15

DEFENSORES DE BELGRANO · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ciudad de Bolívar (H) 45.6%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +25.4%

Draw 31.6%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -17.2%

Defensores De Belgrano (A) 22.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ciudad de Bolívar face Defensores De Belgrano in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ciudad de Bolívar a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Defensores De Belgrano 23%, so Ciudad de Bolívar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ciudad de Bolívar and 0.5 for Defensores De Belgrano (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ciudad de Bolívar are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 1.00 for Defensores De Belgrano. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Ciudad de Bolívar vs Defensores De Belgrano Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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