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Atletico DE Rafaela vs Tristan Suarez Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 19:00

Atletico DE Rafaela

PPG 2.08 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Tristan Suarez

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-028.7%0-117.3%0-25.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.5%1-111.2%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.0%2-13.6%2-21.1%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.3%3-10.8%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.2% 40.0% 2.50 -19.5%

Draw 36.7% 38.5% 2.60 -4.6%

Away win 31.2% 31.3% 3.20 -0.2%

Over 2.5 28.3% 27.8% 3.60 +1.1%

Over 3.5 11.5% 11.1% 9.00 +2.1%

BTTS 39.8% 40.0% 2.50 -0.5%

Home O1.5 30.9% 26.7% 3.75 +15.9%

Away O1.5 16.7% 22.2% 4.50 -14.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob39.8%

D 37% / xG 0.6-0.6 / U2.5 28% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 28.7%

#2 1–0 18.5%

#3 0–1 17.3%

#4 1–1 11.2%

#5 2–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico DE Rafaela0.6

Tristan Suarez0.6

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 28.3% · O3.5 PROB 11.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO DE RAFAELA · PPG 2.08

TRISTAN SUAREZ · PPG 1.83

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.04, combined xG 1.25 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atletico DE Rafaela (H) 32.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -19.5%

Draw 36.7%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -4.6%

Tristan Suarez (A) 31.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico DE Rafaela face Tristan Suarez in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico DE Rafaela a 32% chance, the draw 37% and Tristan Suarez 31%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for Atletico DE Rafaela and 0.6 for Tristan Suarez (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 28% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico DE Rafaela are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 1.83 for Tristan Suarez. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Atletico DE Rafaela vs Tristan Suarez Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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