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Colegiales vs Deportivo Maipu Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:00

Colegiales

PPG 2.08 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Deportivo Maipu

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.8% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+11.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-17.9%0-23.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.7%1-112.1%1-25.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.2%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.3%3-14.7%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% 47.6% 2.10 -1.1%

Draw 27.3% 35.7% 2.80 -14.1%

Away win 25.6% 25.6% 3.90 -0.1%

Over 2.5 50.5% 34.7% 2.88 +45.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 16.7% 6.00 +43.3%

BTTS 50.8% 45.5% 2.20 +11.8%

Home O1.5 40.5% 38.2% 2.62 +6.1%

Away O1.5 25.7% 22.2% 4.50 +9.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.8%

H 47% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0✓ 13.7%

#3 0–0 9.0%

#4 2–0 10.5%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colegiales1.5

Deportivo Maipu0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

COLEGIALES · PPG 2.08

DEPORTIVO MAIPU · PPG 0.92

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Colegiales (H) 47.1%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -1.1%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -14.1%

Deportivo Maipu (A) 25.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colegiales face Deportivo Maipu in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colegiales a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Deportivo Maipu 26%, so Colegiales are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Colegiales and 0.9 for Deportivo Maipu (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colegiales are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 0.92 for Deportivo Maipu. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +45.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Colegiales vs Deportivo Maipu Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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