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Sheriff Tiraspol vs Dacia-Buiucani Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Matchday 7 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 17:00

Sheriff Tiraspol

PPG 2.33 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Dacia-Buiucani

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.8% vs bookmaker-implied 75.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-12.1%0-21.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.1%1-16.0%1-22.9%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.8%2-18.6%2-24.2%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.4%3-18.2%3-24.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-012.1%4+-111.9%4+-25.8%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.3% 80.0% 1.25 -17.1%

Draw 16.5% 18.2% 5.50 -5.5%

Away win 17.2% 11.1% 9.00 +32.9%

Over 2.5 67.2% 66.7% 1.50 +0.8%

Over 3.5 44.0% 46.7% 2.14 -5.8%

BTTS 60.0% 54.3% 1.84 +10.4%

Home O1.5 77.8% 75.8% 1.32 +2.7%

Away O1.5 29.1% 21.1% 4.75 +22.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 25%

ROI -47.4%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.0%

H 66% / xG 2.9-1.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 8.8%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 3–0 8.4%

#4 3–1 8.2%

#5 1–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sheriff Tiraspol2.9

Dacia-Buiucani1.0

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SHERIFF TIRASPOL · PPG 2.33

DACIA-BUIUCANI · PPG 2.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.88 for Home, form 2.33 vs 2.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sheriff Tiraspol (H) 66.3%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -17.1%

Draw 16.5%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -5.5%

Dacia-Buiucani (A) 17.2%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +32.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sheriff Tiraspol face Dacia-Buiucani in Moldova - Super Liga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sheriff Tiraspol a 66% chance, the draw 17% and Dacia-Buiucani 17%, so Sheriff Tiraspol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Sheriff Tiraspol and 1.0 for Dacia-Buiucani (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sheriff Tiraspol are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 2.00 for Dacia-Buiucani. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +22.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Sheriff Tiraspol vs Dacia-Buiucani Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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