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Juarez U21 vs Club America U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 15:00

Juarez U21

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDL

UPCOMING

Club America U21

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 49.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-110.7%0-25.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.6%1-113.2%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.4%2-18.2%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.4%3-13.4%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.7% 40.8% 2.45 -0.3%

Draw 28.8% 30.8% 3.25 -3.8%

Away win 30.5% 39.2% 2.55 -22.2%

Over 2.5 44.8% 48.8% 2.05 -8.2%

Over 3.5 25.6% 27.4% 3.65 -3.9%

BTTS 49.1% 54.6% 1.83 -10.2%

Home O1.5 33.5% 38.8% 2.58 -13.6%

Away O1.5 27.3% 38.8% 2.58 -17.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.1%

H 41% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 0–0 11.0%

#4 0–1 10.7%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juarez U211.2

Club America U211.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

JUAREZ U21 · PPG 1.69

CLUB AMERICA U21 · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.26, combined xG 2.21 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Juarez U21 (H) 40.7%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -0.3%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -3.8%

Club America U21 (A) 30.5%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -22.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juarez U21 face Club America U21 in Mexico - Liga MX U21 on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juarez U21 a 41% chance, the draw 29% and Club America U21 31%, so Juarez U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Juarez U21 and 1.0 for Club America U21 (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juarez U21 are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.60 for Club America U21. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.1%.

Juarez U21 vs Club America U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Match Preview & Prediction

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