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Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 17:00

Pirin Blagoevgrad

PPG 1.04 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

PPG 1.01 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 53.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-111.9%0-27.9%0-33.5%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.8%1-112.9%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.3%2-17.0%2-24.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.9%3-12.5%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.8% 27.5% 3.64 +5.1%

Draw 26.5% 30.7% 3.26 -8.2%

Away win 43.7% 53.2% 1.88 -17.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 48.3% 2.07 +4.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.9% 3.58 +1.7%

BTTS 52.7% 53.8% 1.86 -2.0%

Home O1.5 30.9% 29.2% 3.42 +5.7%

Away O1.5 40.9% 47.6% 2.10 -14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.7%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–1 11.9%

#3 1–2 8.5%

#4 0–0 9.0%

#5 0–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pirin Blagoevgrad1.1

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PIRIN BLAGOEVGRAD · PPG 1.04

CHERNOMORETS 1919 BURGAS · PPG 1.01

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.24, combined xG 2.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Pirin Blagoevgrad (H) 29.8%

ODDS 3.64 · IMPLIED 27.5% EV +5.1%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.26 · IMPLIED 30.7% EV -8.2%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (A) 43.7%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pirin Blagoevgrad face Chernomorets 1919 Burgas in Bulgaria - Second League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pirin Blagoevgrad a 30% chance, the draw 27% and Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 44%, so Chernomorets 1919 Burgas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Pirin Blagoevgrad and 1.3 for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pirin Blagoevgrad are averaging 1.04 points per game versus 1.01 for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +5.7%. This match finished 0-3.

Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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