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Al Wasl vs D. Al Fujairah Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Regular Season - 23 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 14:00

Al Wasl

PPG 2.18 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

D. Al Fujairah

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 73.5% vs bookmaker-implied 82.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-13.9%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.5%1-18.2%1-22.3%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.3%2-18.7%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.8%3-16.1%3-21.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.3%4+-15.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.5% 82.6% 1.21 -11.1%

Draw 17.9% 17.9% 5.60 +0.2%

Away win 8.6% 8.0% 12.50 +7.5%

Over 2.5 50.2% 70.4% 1.42 -28.7%

Over 3.5 28.2% 48.8% 2.05 -42.2%

BTTS 38.0% 54.6% 1.83 -30.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -7.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob38.0%

H 74% / xG 2.1-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.3%

#2 1–0 14.5%

#3 3–0 10.8%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 1–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Wasl2.1

D. Al Fujairah0.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AL WASL · PPG 2.18

D. AL FUJAIRAH · PPG 0.55

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.18), Away POOR (0.55) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Al Wasl (H) 73.5%

ODDS 1.21 · IMPLIED 82.6% EV -11.1%

Draw 17.9%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +0.2%

D. Al Fujairah (A) 8.6%

ODDS 12.50 · IMPLIED 8.0% EV +7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Wasl face D. Al Fujairah in United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Wasl a 74% chance, the draw 18% and D. Al Fujairah 9%, so Al Wasl are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Al Wasl and 0.6 for D. Al Fujairah (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Wasl are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 0.55 for D. Al Fujairah. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.5%. This match finished 4-2.

Al Wasl vs D. Al Fujairah Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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