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Al Dhafra vs Ajman Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Matchday 23 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 14:00

Al Dhafra

PPG 1.09 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ajman

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-19.8%0-26.0%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.4%1-112.7%1-27.8%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.7%2-18.3%2-25.1%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.9%3-13.6%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.3% 34.0% 2.94 +12.6%

Draw 26.8% 28.2% 3.55 -4.9%

Away win 34.9% 46.7% 2.14 -25.3%

Over 2.5 46.4% 55.6% 1.80 -16.5%

Over 3.5 24.9% 33.3% 3.00 -25.3%

BTTS 51.5% 60.6% 1.65 -15.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.5%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 10.4%

#3 0–1✓ 9.8%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 0–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Dhafra1.3

Ajman1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.4% · O3.5 PROB 24.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AL DHAFRA · PPG 1.09

AJMAN · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

58%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.09), Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Al Dhafra (H) 38.3%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV +12.6%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -4.9%

Ajman (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV -25.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Dhafra face Ajman in United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Dhafra a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Ajman 35%, so Al Dhafra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Al Dhafra and 1.2 for Ajman (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Dhafra are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.18 for Ajman. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Al Dhafra vs Ajman Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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