Today / Egypt - Premier League / Pharco vs El Gouna
Pharco vs El Gouna Prediction— Egypt - Premier League
Relegation Group - 6 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 14:00
// Model verdict
Draw
Model probability 51.7% vs bookmaker-implied 38.5% — a clear edge.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 54 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
D 52% / xG 0.4-0.5 / U2.5 5% / NoBTTS 11%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 0.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 5.0% · O3.5 PROB 1.0%
Form & verdict
PHARCO · PPG 1.00
EL GOUNA · PPG 1.54
Away momentum: GOOD form (1.54) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Pharco face El Gouna in Egypt - Premier League on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pharco a 21% chance, the draw 52% and El Gouna 27%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.4 for Pharco and 0.5 for El Gouna (0.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 5% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 11% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pharco are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.54 for El Gouna. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +34.4%. This match finished 0-1.