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Sukhothai vs Ratchaburi Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 28 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 12:00

Sukhothai

PPG 1.62 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Ratchaburi

PPG 2.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-114.3%0-211.0%0-35.6%0-4+3.0%1 1-07.8%1-112.0%1-29.2%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-03.3%2-15.0%2-23.9%2-32.0%2-4+1.1%3 3-00.9%3-11.4%3-21.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.6% 27.4% 3.65 -24.8%

Draw 25.8% 29.0% 3.45 -11.0%

Away win 53.7% 54.1% 1.85 -0.7%

Over 2.5 42.4% 58.8% 1.70 -27.9%

Over 3.5 21.6% 36.4% 2.75 -40.6%

BTTS 44.6% 62.5% 1.60 -28.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob44.6%

A 54% / xG 0.8-1.5 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.3%

#2 1–1 12.0%

#3 0–2 11.0%

#4 0–0 9.3%

#5 1–2✓ 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sukhothai0.8

Ratchaburi1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.4% · O3.5 PROB 21.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SUKHOTHAI · PPG 1.62

RATCHABURI · PPG 2.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.62) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.08)

Win probability 1X2

Sukhothai (H) 20.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -24.8%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -11.0%

Ratchaburi (A) 53.7%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sukhothai face Ratchaburi in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sukhothai a 21% chance, the draw 26% and Ratchaburi 54%, so Ratchaburi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Sukhothai and 1.5 for Ratchaburi (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sukhothai are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 2.08 for Ratchaburi. This match finished 1-2.

Sukhothai vs Ratchaburi Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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