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Young Boys II vs Lugano II Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 12:00

Young Boys II

PPG 1.52 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Lugano II

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a clear edge.

+13.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-11.1%0-20.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.3%1 1-02.2%1-13.6%1-23.1%1-31.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-03.6%2-16.1%2-25.2%2-32.9%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.1%3-16.9%3-25.8%3-33.3%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-08.0%4+-113.5%4+-211.4%4+-36.4%4+-4+4.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.9% 61.7% 1.62 +3.5%

Draw 15.9% 24.4% 4.10 -20.9%

Away win 20.1% 23.8% 4.20 -9.3%

Over 2.5 80.6% 70.4% 1.42 +14.4%

Over 3.5 56.5% 48.8% 2.05 +15.8%

BTTS 69.6% 69.4% 1.44 +0.2%

Home O1.5 78.3% 69.0% 1.45 +13.5%

Away O1.5 48.2% 40.8% 2.45 +18.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 77%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 77%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob69.6%

H 64% / xG 3.4-1.7 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1✓ 6.9%

#2 2–1 6.1%

#3 3–2 5.8%

#4 4–1 5.8%

#5 2–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Young Boys II3.4

Lugano II1.7

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.6% · O3.5 PROB 56.5%

Form & verdict PPG

YOUNG BOYS II · PPG 1.52

LUGANO II · PPG 1.17

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.68 for Home, form 1.52 vs 1.17 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Young Boys II (H) 63.9%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +3.5%

Draw 15.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -20.9%

Lugano II (A) 20.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Young Boys II face Lugano II in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Young Boys II a 64% chance, the draw 16% and Lugano II 20%, so Young Boys II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Young Boys II and 1.7 for Lugano II (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Young Boys II are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 1.17 for Lugano II. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Young Boys II vs Lugano II Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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