Today / India - Indian Super League / NorthEast Utd vs Goa

NorthEast Utd vs Goa Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Regular Season - 10 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 11:30

NorthEast Utd

PPG 0.75 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Goa

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 57.5% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+29.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.8%0-120.3%0-213.9%0-36.4%0-4+3.0%1 1-08.0%1-110.9%1-27.5%1-33.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-02.1%2-12.9%2-22.0%2-30.9%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.4%3-10.5%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.6% 34.7% 2.88 -58.0%

Draw 27.9% 31.3% 3.20 -10.7%

Away win 57.5% 44.4% 2.25 +29.4%

Over 2.5 30.0% 51.3% 1.95 -41.5%

Over 3.5 12.7% 29.4% 3.40 -56.8%

BTTS 31.1% 58.8% 1.70 -47.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 62%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob31.1%

A 57% / xG 0.5-1.4 / U2.5 30% / NoBTTS 31%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 20.3%

#2 0–0 14.8%

#3 0–2✓ 13.9%

#4 1–1 10.9%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NorthEast Utd0.5

Goa1.4

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 30.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTHEAST UTD · PPG 0.75

GOA · PPG 1.50

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

NorthEast Utd (H) 14.6%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -58.0%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.7%

Goa (A) 57.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +29.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

NorthEast Utd face Goa in India - Indian Super League on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NorthEast Utd a 15% chance, the draw 28% and Goa 57%, so Goa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for NorthEast Utd and 1.4 for Goa (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 31% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NorthEast Utd are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.50 for Goa. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +29.4%. This match finished 0-2.

NorthEast Utd vs Goa Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More India - Indian Super League Predictions