Today / Australia - Queensland Premier League / Capalaba vs North Star

Capalaba vs North Star Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 10:30

Capalaba

PPG 0.60 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

North Star

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.60), Away POOR (0.50)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-17.5%0-23.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.8%1-111.8%1-25.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.4%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.8%3-14.9%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-12.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.5% — — —

Draw 25.2% — — —

Away win 20.3% — — —

Over 2.5 44.0% — — —

Over 3.5 22.9% — — —

BTTS 45.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -0.9%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob45.7%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 44% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.8%

#2 1–1 11.8%

#3 2–0 10.9%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Capalaba1.6

North Star0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CAPALABA · PPG 0.60

NORTH STAR · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.60), Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Capalaba (H) 54.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

North Star (A) 20.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Capalaba face North Star in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Capalaba a 55% chance, the draw 25% and North Star 20%, so Capalaba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Capalaba and 0.9 for North Star (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Capalaba are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 0.50 for North Star. This match finished 2-3.

Capalaba vs North Star Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Queensland Premier League Predictions